A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
